Fitch Solutions has surprisingly projected 4.6% growth rate for Ghana in 2023.

This is lower the 2.8% forecast by the International Monetary Fund, and predictions by most institutions.

In July 2022, it revised Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in 2022 to 2.6%, from an earlier forecast of 4.8%.

However, it said in its Quarterly Sub Saharan Africa Macroeconomic Update that the economic growth forecast is premised on an expected deal with the International Monetary Fund before the end of 2022.

Senior Country Risk Analyst at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, said “the country is going through a challenging period at the moment with inflation rising, rising interest rates and deteriorating fiscal and external accounts, and this is reflected in Ghana’s economic growth at the left hand side of the chat”.

“We noticed that real GDP growth in Ghana was 3.3% in 2022, below its 10-year pre-pandemic average of 6.8%. It should be noted that our 2022 projection is an upward revision from our previous forecast of only 2.6%. We don’t believe growth will be maintained and we expect that quarter 3 and quarter 4 will come in substantially weaker”, he mentioned.

“Going into 2023, we forecast that economic growth will pick up reaching 4.6% still below the country’s expected growth, indicating that Ghana’s problem may persist into next year. It is really important to highlight here that the 2023 forecast is premised on the assumption that Ghanaian authorities and the IMF will reach a deal by the end of 2022 or by early 2023”, he added.

Fitch Solutions also said the cedi has lost over 50% in value to the dollar, making it the worst currency globally in 2022.

It added that “a large part of Ghana’s economic problem is caused by weak investor sentiments which is a key reason why the exchange rate has depreciated significantly”.